|
Week
at a Glance
Day By Day
Commentary:
Back on Track
After yet
another good week, the GTI and the
Four Horsemen are now at their highest levels
since 2007.
What an amazing recovery this has been.
Why did it happen? Why did the stock market
brush off the virulently anti-business threat
from Washington?
I think it knew that this particular government
wasn't ever going to get much of anything done.
That's pretty amazing, when you think about it.
A President and a filibuster-proof Congress,
united in their politics, yet so incompetent,
so distracted by ideology, so quarrelsome
with each other, so out of touch with the
American people (and so increasingly
unpopular), that they can't enact legislation.
The threat turns out to be just talk. And the
stock market figured this out a long time ago.
Aren't free markets wonderful?
GG's Forum Posts:
| |
#
of Posts |
| This
week |
4 |
| 5-wk
avg |
12.2 |
For
comparison, in the time of the Gilder Report,
GG averaged 9.1 posts per week.
The
Indexes:
| |
GTI
|
NSD |
S&P
|
4
HM |
| Week |
5.2% |
3.9% |
3.1% |
2.8% |
| YTD |
4.8% |
2.5% |
2.1% |
18.6% |
| 52
wks |
118.1% |
79.8% |
66.6% |
65.2% |
YTD S&P including dividends: 2.5%
Individual GTI
Returns
for Week and YTD
|
In
Alphabetic Order |
|
In
Order By Return |
|
|
Week |
YTD |
|
|
Week |
|
|
YTD |
|
ALTR |
2.2% |
10.5% |
|
MVIS |
22.3% |
|
SMI |
58.0% |
|
AMD |
8.8% |
-11.1% |
|
CPHD |
16.3% |
|
FNSR |
46.6% |
|
ANAD |
14.4% |
11.4% |
|
ANAD |
14.4% |
|
IKAN |
43.9% |
|
BRCM |
-0.5% |
-1.0% |
|
ENER |
9.4% |
|
CPHD |
40.7% |
|
CPHD |
16.3% |
40.7% |
|
AMD |
8.8% |
|
EZCH |
37.3% |
|
ENER |
9.4% |
-25.4% |
|
EQIX |
8.8% |
|
NETL |
21.2% |
|
EQIX |
8.8% |
-3.2% |
|
PMCS |
8.0% |
|
SIGM |
13.5% |
|
EZCH |
2.1% |
37.3% |
|
IKAN |
6.3% |
|
ANAD |
11.4% |
|
FLEX |
4.6% |
-0.4% |
|
ZRAN |
5.9% |
|
ALTR |
10.5% |
|
FNSR |
4.6% |
46.6% |
|
QCOM |
5.7% |
|
ZRAN |
8.7% |
|
FORM |
5.0% |
-20.6% |
|
PWER |
5.6% |
|
XLNX |
7.2% |
|
GLW |
2.7% |
-6.0% |
|
FORM |
5.0% |
|
HITT |
7.2% |
|
HITT |
5.0% |
7.2% |
|
HITT |
5.0% |
|
OPXT |
5.8% |
|
IKAN |
6.3% |
43.9% |
|
FNSR |
4.6% |
|
PMCS |
3.5% |
|
MU |
4.4% |
-10.4% |
|
FLEX |
4.6% |
|
FLEX |
-0.4% |
|
MVIS |
22.3% |
-15.1% |
|
MU |
4.4% |
|
BRCM |
-1.0% |
|
NETL |
3.4% |
21.2% |
|
TSM |
3.9% |
|
EQIX |
-3.2% |
|
NSM |
1.3% |
-4.0% |
|
SIGM |
3.8% |
|
TXN |
-3.7% |
|
OPXT |
-1.5% |
5.8% |
|
NETL |
3.4% |
|
NSM |
-4.0% |
|
PMCS |
8.0% |
3.5% |
|
XLNX |
3.4% |
|
GLW |
-6.0% |
|
PWER |
5.6% |
-8.3% |
|
GLW |
2.7% |
|
PWER |
-8.3% |
|
QCOM |
5.7% |
-15.8% |
|
TXN |
2.4% |
|
S |
-10.4% |
|
S |
-1.5% |
-10.4% |
|
ALTR |
2.2% |
|
MU |
-10.4% |
|
SIGM |
3.8% |
13.5% |
|
EZCH |
2.1% |
|
AMD |
-11.1% |
|
SMI |
-1.3% |
58.0% |
|
NSM |
1.3% |
|
TSM |
-11.5% |
|
SYNA |
-0.1% |
-13.0% |
|
SYNA |
-0.1% |
|
SYNA |
-13.0% |
|
TSM |
3.9% |
-11.5% |
|
BRCM |
-0.5% |
|
MVIS |
-15.1% |
|
TXN |
2.4% |
-3.7% |
|
SMI |
-1.3% |
|
QCOM |
-15.8% |
|
XLNX |
3.4% |
7.2% |
|
OPXT |
-1.5% |
|
FORM |
-20.6% |
|
ZRAN |
5.9% |
8.7% |
|
S |
-1.5% |
|
ENER |
-25.4% |
Returns for the Watch List:
| |
Week |
YTD
|
| CAVM |
1.8% |
2.1% |
| HLIT |
4.0% |
7.9% |
| QUIK |
3.3% |
18.5% |
| WAVX |
-
3.4% |
158.5% |
Historical Returns:
| Period |
GTI
|
NSD
|
S&P
excl
divds
|
S&P
incl
divds
|
4HM
|
| 1997 |
21.4% |
21.6% |
31.0% |
|
|
| 1998 |
48.2% |
39.6% |
26.7% |
|
|
| 1999 |
284.3% |
85.6% |
19.5% |
|
|
| 2000 |
-
43.9% |
-
39.3% |
-
10.1% |
|
|
| 2001 |
-
43.3% |
-
21.1% |
-
13.1% |
|
|
| 2002 |
-
56.4% |
-
31.5% |
-
23.4% |
|
|
| 2003 |
130.3% |
50.0% |
26.4% |
|
|
| 2004 |
2.5% |
8.6% |
9.0% |
|
|
| 2005 |
5.1% |
1.4% |
3.0% |
4.9% |
|
| 2006 |
15.8% |
9.5% |
13.6% |
15.8% |
|
| 2007 |
5.8% |
9.8% |
3.5% |
5.5% |
|
| 2008 |
-
50.0% |
-
40.5% |
-
38.5% |
-
37.0% |
-
47.8% |
| 2009 |
97.1% |
43.9% |
23.5% |
26.5% |
51.7% |
| YTD |
4.8% |
2.5% |
2.1% |
2.5% |
18.6% |
13+
yrs
per ann |
8.7% |
4.6% |
3.3% |
|
|
Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year |
Do Pay
Dividends |
Do Not Pay
Dividends |
| 2004 |
11.6% |
- 3.3% |
| 2005 |
11.1% |
4.2% |
| 2006 |
-
5.9% |
22.1% |
| 2007 |
-
1.9% |
7.6% |
| 2008 |
-
33.4% |
-
54.9% |
| 2009 |
59.4% |
109.3% |
| 2010
to date |
-
3.3% |
7.3% |
| Avg
6+ yrs |
2.6% |
4.9% |
|
2010 to Date: GTI,
NASDAQ, and S&P
Also Four
Horsemen
(EZCH, SIGM, NETL, and CAVM)
GTI Last 52 Weeks, with Moving Averages
(The GTI started at 10,000 on
January 1, 1999)
Since January 1, 1999: GTI, NASDAQ, S&P
Weekly Change in GTI, Last 52 Weeks
Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 2-1/2 Years
(Does
it repeat sinusoidally? Don't bet the farm on it.)
Makeup of the GTI:
The 30 GTI companies are the "Telecosm
Technologies" of the final June 2007 Gilder Technology Report,
excluding SMTL since
its merger into AMAT.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
25 up, 5 down, 0 unchanged.
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As
an indication of volatility, this table shows average
weekly change in the GTI each year:
| Year |
Ave
Wkly Change |
| 1999 |
4.2% |
| 2000 |
7.7% |
| 2001 |
8.5% |
| 2002 |
6.8% |
| 2003 |
4.3% |
| 2004 |
3.4% |
| 2005 |
2.1% |
| 2006 |
2.9% |
| 2007 |
2.1% |
| 2008 |
5.2% |
| 2009 |
3.6% |
| 2010
to date |
4.2% |
As
an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
Year |
Number
of Up Weeks |
As a % |
| 1999 |
39
of 52 |
75% |
| 2000 |
24
of 52 |
46% |
| 2001 |
22
of 52 |
42% |
| 2002 |
19
of 52 |
37% |
| 2003 |
31
of 53 |
58% |
| 2004 |
28
of 52 |
54% |
| 2005 |
26 of 52 |
50% |
| 2007 |
32 of 52 |
62% |
| 2008 |
23
of
53 |
43% |
| 2009 |
29
of 52 |
56% |
| 2010
to date |
5
of 9 |
56% |
|
