|
Week
at a Glance
Day By Day
Commentary:
Better Times Ahead
It was one more in a string of bad weeks, but it
could have been worse. For most of the week
it looked as if it would be, but then an heroic
Friday rode to the rescue.
One bright light was the Four Horsemen, up 3.0%,
thanks to NETL's most welcome 7.8% gain.
Alas, the summer is coming to an end. That's sad,
but it's better than if the world
came to an end.
Come to think of it, the sooner the summer ends,
the sooner we reach November 2nd, Election Day,
and the sooner we throw
the rascals out. That by
itself should keep the world from coming to an end.
What an 18 months it has been, this experiment
with incompetent pork barrel socialism,
"the most
fiscally
irresponsible
government in U.S. history."
Don't blame me. I didn't vote
for it. It comes as no
surprise to me that Hope and Change were snake oil.
(Where was the FDA when we needed it?)
Perhaps what keeps the market from collapsing is the
expectation that we'll soon have adult leadership in
Washington. For sure, it isn't any recovery
summer
that is helping the market along.
To hell with summer, anyway. Bring on November.
GG's Forum Posts:
| |
#
of Posts |
| This
week |
6 |
| 5-wk
avg |
2.4 |
Avg
since
GTR ended
June, 2007 |
5.6 |
For
comparison, in the time of the Gilder Report,
GG averaged 9.1 posts per week.
The
Indexes:
| |
GTI
|
NSD |
S&P
|
4HM |
| Week |
-
1.9% |
-
1.2% |
-
0.7% |
3.0% |
| YTD |
-
6.5% |
-
5.1% |
-
4.5% |
19.0% |
| 52
wks |
9.2% |
6.2% |
3.5% |
16.4% |
YTD S&P including dividends: -
3.3%
Individual GTI
Returns
for Week and YTD
|
In
Alphabetic Order |
|
In
Order By Return |
|
|
Week |
YTD |
|
|
Week |
|
|
YTD |
|
ALTR |
-0.2% |
13.6% |
|
NETL |
7.8% |
|
PWER |
138.4% |
|
AMD |
-2.7% |
-37.2% |
|
PWER |
2.7% |
|
EZCH |
81.2% |
|
ANAD |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
EQIX |
1.5% |
|
FNSR |
42.7% |
|
BRCM |
0.4% |
5.7% |
|
SIGM |
0.9% |
|
CPHD |
22.8% |
|
CPHD |
-0.8% |
22.8% |
|
EZCH |
0.5% |
|
ALTR |
13.6% |
|
ENER |
-0.7% |
-60.9% |
|
BRCM |
0.4% |
|
NETL |
11.8% |
|
EQIX |
1.5% |
-13.9% |
|
ANAD |
0.1% |
|
S |
9.3% |
|
EZCH |
0.5% |
81.2% |
|
OPXT |
0.0% |
|
HITT |
6.2% |
|
FLEX |
-4.5% |
-30.1% |
|
SYNA |
-0.1% |
|
BRCM |
5.7% |
|
FNSR |
-8.3% |
42.7% |
|
QCOM |
-0.2% |
|
SMI |
1.9% |
|
FORM |
-15.6% |
-65.9% |
|
ALTR |
-0.2% |
|
XLNX |
1.4% |
|
GLW |
-0.4% |
-16.5% |
|
TSM |
-0.3% |
|
ANAD |
0.4% |
|
HITT |
-2.1% |
6.2% |
|
GLW |
-0.4% |
|
TXN |
-5.9% |
|
IKAN |
-9.6% |
-49.7% |
|
ENER |
-0.7% |
|
SYNA |
-8.6% |
|
MU |
-4.1% |
-35.3% |
|
CPHD |
-0.8% |
|
SIGM |
-9.2% |
|
MVIS |
-4.0% |
-24.9% |
|
PMCS |
-1.1% |
|
TSM |
-11.5% |
|
NETL |
7.8% |
11.8% |
|
XLNX |
-2.0% |
|
EQIX |
-13.9% |
|
NSM |
-2.7% |
-14.3% |
|
HITT |
-2.1% |
|
NSM |
-14.3% |
|
OPXT |
0.0% |
-24.2% |
|
ZRAN |
-2.1% |
|
QCOM |
-15.3% |
|
PMCS |
-1.1% |
-16.5% |
|
TXN |
-2.2% |
|
GLW |
-16.5% |
|
PWER |
2.7% |
138.4% |
|
NSM |
-2.7% |
|
PMCS |
-16.5% |
|
QCOM |
-0.2% |
-15.3% |
|
AMD |
-2.7% |
|
ZRAN |
-23.6% |
|
S |
-4.5% |
9.3% |
|
SMI |
-3.5% |
|
OPXT |
-24.2% |
|
SIGM |
0.9% |
-9.2% |
|
MVIS |
-4.0% |
|
MVIS |
-24.9% |
|
SMI |
-3.5% |
1.9% |
|
MU |
-4.1% |
|
FLEX |
-30.1% |
|
SYNA |
-0.1% |
-8.6% |
|
FLEX |
-4.5% |
|
MU |
-35.3% |
|
TSM |
-0.3% |
-11.5% |
|
S |
-4.5% |
|
AMD |
-37.2% |
|
TXN |
-2.2% |
-5.9% |
|
FNSR |
-8.3% |
|
IKAN |
-49.7% |
|
XLNX |
-2.0% |
1.4% |
|
IKAN |
-9.6% |
|
ENER |
-60.9% |
|
ZRAN |
-2.1% |
-23.6% |
|
FORM |
-15.6% |
|
FORM |
-65.9% |
Returns for the Watch List:
| |
Week |
YTD
|
| CAVM |
2.7% |
0.8% |
| HLIT |
-
0.3% |
-
4.6% |
| QUIK |
-
5.7% |
56.9% |
| WAVX |
3.0% |
68.3% |
Historical Returns:
| Period |
GTI
|
NSD
|
S&P
excl
divds
|
S&P
incl
divds
|
4HM
|
| 1997 |
21.4% |
21.6% |
31.0% |
|
|
| 1998 |
48.2% |
39.6% |
26.7% |
|
|
| 1999 |
284.3% |
85.6% |
19.5% |
|
|
| 2000 |
-
43.9% |
-
39.3% |
-
10.1% |
|
|
| 2001 |
-
43.3% |
-
21.1% |
-
13.1% |
|
|
| 2002 |
-
56.4% |
-
31.5% |
-
23.4% |
|
|
| 2003 |
130.3% |
50.0% |
26.4% |
|
|
| 2004 |
2.5% |
8.6% |
9.0% |
|
|
| 2005 |
5.1% |
1.4% |
3.0% |
4.9% |
|
| 2006 |
15.8% |
9.5% |
13.6% |
15.8% |
|
| 2007 |
5.8% |
9.8% |
3.5% |
5.5% |
|
| 2008 |
-
50.0% |
-
40.5% |
-
38.5% |
-
37.0% |
-
47.8% |
| 2009 |
97.1% |
43.9% |
23.5% |
26.5% |
51.7% |
| YTD |
-
6.5% |
-
5.1% |
-
4.5% |
-
3.3% |
19.0% |
13+
yrs
per ann |
7.7% |
3.9% |
2.7% |
|
|
Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year |
Do Pay
Dividends |
Do Not Pay
Dividends |
| 2004 |
11.6% |
- 3.3% |
| 2005 |
11.1% |
4.2% |
| 2006 |
-
5.9% |
22.1% |
| 2007 |
-
1.9% |
7.6% |
| 2008 |
-
33.4% |
-
54.9% |
| 2009 |
59.4% |
109.3% |
| 2010
to date |
- 4.6% |
-
7.2% |
| Avg
6+ yrs |
2.2% |
2.2% |
|
2010 to Date: GTI,
NASDAQ, and S&P
Also Four
Horsemen
(EZCH, SIGM, NETL, and CAVM)
GTI Last 52 Weeks, with Moving Averages
(The GTI started at 10,000 on
January 1, 1999)
Since January 1, 1999: GTI, NASDAQ, S&P
Weekly Change in GTI, Last 52 Weeks
Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 2-1/2 Years
Makeup of the GTI:
The 30 GTI companies are the "Telecosm
Technologies" of the final June 2007 Gilder Technology Report,
excluding SMTL after
its December 2009 merger into AMAT.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
7 up, 22 down, 1 unchanged.
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As
an indication of volatility, this table shows average
weekly change in the GTI each year:
| Year |
Ave
Wkly Change |
| 1999 |
4.2% |
| 2000 |
7.7% |
| 2001 |
8.5% |
| 2002 |
6.8% |
| 2003 |
4.3% |
| 2004 |
3.4% |
| 2005 |
2.1% |
| 2006 |
2.9% |
| 2007 |
2.1% |
| 2008 |
5.2% |
| 2009 |
3.6% |
| 2010
to date |
3.6% |
As
an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
Year |
Number
of Up Weeks |
As a % |
| 1999 |
39
of 52 |
75% |
| 2000 |
24
of 52 |
46% |
| 2001 |
22
of 52 |
42% |
| 2002 |
19
of 52 |
37% |
| 2003 |
31
of 53 |
58% |
| 2004 |
28
of 52 |
54% |
| 2005 |
26 of 52 |
50% |
| 2007 |
32 of 52 |
62% |
| 2008 |
23
of
53 |
43% |
| 2009 |
29
of 52 |
56% |
| 2010
to date |
18
of 34 |
53% |
|
