Maharajah of Magtidor

"The GTI by Dickey . . . it's
more fun than a hickey"
-- says Glenn (gdg4colcor)



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Leaving Lake George
Photo by Szymon
Cast of Characters
Gilder Technology Index (GTI)
*The* Site for Gilder Results

Dick Sears
March 5, 2010

Site Updated Weekly
On the last trading day of the week,
one hour after the market closes.

"Broad Band" by Holly Seeger/Today Video. 
See also her "Digital Power" animation (5 sec delay)

Week at a Glance


Day By Day



Commentary:
  Back on Track

After yet another good week, the GTI and the
Four Horsemen are now at their highest levels
since 2007.

What an amazing recovery this has been. 

Why did it happen? Why did the stock market
brush off the virulently anti-business threat
from Washington?

I think it knew that this particular government
wasn't ever going to get much of anything done.

That's pretty amazing, when you think about it.
A President and a filibuster-proof Congress,
united in their politics, yet so incompetent,
so distracted by ideology, so quarrelsome
with each other, so out of touch with the
American people (and so increasingly
unpopular), that they can't enact legislation.

The threat turns out to be just talk. And the
stock market figured this out a long time ago.
Aren't free markets wonderful? 

GG's Forum Posts:

 

# of Posts

This week 4
5-wk avg 12.2

For comparison, in the time of the Gilder Report,
GG averaged 9.1 posts per week.

The Indexes:

  GTI    NSD   S&P   4 HM   
Week 5.2%  3.9%  3.1%  2.8% 
YTD 4.8%  2.5%  2.1%  18.6% 
52 wks 118.1%  79.8%  66.6%  65.2% 

YTD S&P including dividends:  2.5%

Individual GTI Returns for Week and YTD

In Alphabetic Order

 

In Order By Return

 

Week

YTD

 

 

Week

 

YTD

ALTR

2.2%

10.5%

 

MVIS

22.3%

SMI

58.0%

AMD

8.8%

-11.1%

 

CPHD

16.3%

FNSR

46.6%

ANAD

14.4%

11.4%

 

ANAD

14.4%

IKAN

43.9%

BRCM

-0.5%

-1.0%

 

ENER

9.4%

CPHD

40.7%

CPHD

16.3%

40.7%

 

AMD

8.8%

EZCH

37.3%

ENER

9.4%

-25.4%

 

EQIX

8.8%

NETL

21.2%

EQIX

8.8%

-3.2%

 

PMCS

8.0%

SIGM

13.5%

EZCH

2.1%

37.3%

 

IKAN

6.3%

ANAD

11.4%

FLEX

4.6%

-0.4%

 

ZRAN

5.9%

ALTR

10.5%

FNSR

4.6%

46.6%

 

QCOM

5.7%

ZRAN

8.7%

FORM

5.0%

-20.6%

 

PWER

5.6%

XLNX

7.2%

GLW

2.7%

-6.0%

 

FORM

5.0%

HITT

7.2%

HITT

5.0%

7.2%

 

HITT

5.0%

OPXT

5.8%

IKAN

6.3%

43.9%

 

FNSR

4.6%

PMCS

3.5%

MU

4.4%

-10.4%

 

FLEX

4.6%

FLEX

-0.4%

MVIS

22.3%

-15.1%

 

MU

4.4%

BRCM

-1.0%

NETL

3.4%

21.2%

 

TSM

3.9%

EQIX

-3.2%

NSM

1.3%

-4.0%

 

SIGM

3.8%

TXN

-3.7%

OPXT

-1.5%

5.8%

 

NETL

3.4%

NSM

-4.0%

PMCS

8.0%

3.5%

 

XLNX

3.4%

GLW

-6.0%

PWER

5.6%

-8.3%

 

GLW

2.7%

PWER

-8.3%

QCOM

5.7%

-15.8%

 

TXN

2.4%

S

-10.4%

S

-1.5%

-10.4%

 

ALTR

2.2%

MU

-10.4%

SIGM

3.8%

13.5%

 

EZCH

2.1%

AMD

-11.1%

SMI

-1.3%

58.0%

 

NSM

1.3%

TSM

-11.5%

SYNA

-0.1%

-13.0%

 

SYNA

-0.1%

SYNA

-13.0%

TSM

3.9%

-11.5%

 

BRCM

-0.5%

MVIS

-15.1%

TXN

2.4%

-3.7%

 

SMI

-1.3%

QCOM

-15.8%

XLNX

3.4%

7.2%

 

OPXT

-1.5%

FORM

-20.6%

ZRAN

5.9%

8.7%

 

S

-1.5%

ENER

-25.4%

Returns for the Watch List:

  Week   YTD    
CAVM 1.8%   2.1%  
HLIT 4.0%   7.9%  
QUIK 3.3%   18.5%  
WAVX - 3.4%   158.5%  

Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  

S&P
excl
divds

S&P
incl
divds

4HM

1997 21.4% 21.6% 31.0%
1998 48.2% 39.6%  26.7%
1999 284.3% 85.6%  19.5%
2000 - 43.9% - 39.3% - 10.1%
2001  - 43.3% - 21.1% - 13.1%
2002 - 56.4% - 31.5% - 23.4%
2003  130.3% 50.0% 26.4%
2004   2.5% 8.6%    9.0%
2005   5.1%  1.4% 3.0% 4.9%
2006 15.8% 9.5% 13.6% 15.8%
2007 5.8% 9.8% 3.5% 5.5%
2008 - 50.0% - 40.5% - 38.5% - 37.0% - 47.8%
2009 97.1% 43.9% 23.5% 26.5% 51.7%
YTD 4.8% 2.5% 2.1% 2.5% 18.6%
13+ yrs
per ann
8.7%  4.6% 3.3%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay
Dividends
Do Not Pay
Dividends
2004 11.6%   - 3.3%  
2005 11.1%   4.2%  
2006 - 5.9%   22.1%  
2007 - 1.9%   7.6%  
2008 - 33.4%   - 54.9%  
2009 59.4%   109.3%  
2010 to date - 3.3%   7.3%  
Avg 6+ yrs 2.6%   4.9%  

2010 to Date: GTI, NASDAQ, and S&P
Also Four Horsemen
(EZCH, SIGM, NETL, and CAVM)


GTI Last 52 Weeks, with Moving Averages
(The GTI started at 10,000 on January 1, 1999)


Since January 1, 1999: GTI, NASDAQ, S&P



Weekly Change in GTI, Last 52 Weeks


Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 2-1/2 Years
(Does it repeat sinusoidally? Don't bet the farm on it.)

Makeup of the GTI:

The 30 GTI companies are the "Telecosm Technologies" of the final June 2007 Gilder Technology Report, excluding SMTL since
its merger into AMAT.


Advances vs. Declines:

Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
25 up, 5 down, 0 unchanged.


Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows a
verage weekly change in the GTI each year:

Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 2.1%
2006 2.9%
2007 2.1%
2008 5.2%
2009 3.6%
2010 to date 4.2%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:


Year
Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 26 of 52 50%
2007 32 of 52 62%
2008 23 of 53 43%
2009 29 of 52 56%
2010 to date 5 of 9 56%