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Commentary:
Test Results
Some weeks ago, I reported to you something
I had seen on CNBC. (I only saw it, I didn't hear
it. Like children, CNBC should be seen but not
heard.)
Based on a graphic on the TV screen, a talking
head seemed to be predicting that the market
was going to retest its Saint Patrick's Day lows.
At the time, we were sailing along, with the
market at a five-month high. The prediction
gave me an ugly chill, and it turned out to be
uncanny, of course.
This week, after six consecutive bad weeks,
the market did in fact retest its lows, but for
the moment, at least, it seems to have passed
the test.
But was that a final or a midterm? Time will tell.
In any event, despite a soft
and googly Friday
(not to mention MVIS's disappointingly-priced
stock offering), we just had our first good week
since May. The GTI was up 2.8%, and the Four
Horsemen, with solid gains from all but CAVM,
gained 5.2%.
Meanwhile, GG continues to cut class. Over
the last five weeks his forum posts (five in total)
have averaged only half a line of print a day.
GG's Forum Posts:
| |
#
of Posts |
| This
week |
3 |
| 5-wk
avg |
1.4 |
For
comparison, before the GTR stopped,
GG averaged 9.1 posts per week.
The Daily
Chart:
The
Indexes:
| |
GTI
|
NSD |
S&P
|
4
HM |
| Week |
2.6% |
2.0% |
1.7% |
5.1% |
| YTD |
-
13.5% |
-
13.9% |
-
14.1% |
-
28.5% |
| 52
wks |
-
22.8% |
-
15.1% |
-
17.8% |
n.a. |
YTD
S&P including dividends: - 13.2%.
The GTI's
31 Component Stocks
|
In
Alphabetic Order |
|
In
Order By Return |
|
|
Week |
YTD |
|
|
Week |
|
|
YTD |
|
ALTR |
12.1% |
11.8% |
|
SIGM |
13.2% |
|
ENER |
99.2% |
|
AMD |
-3.9% |
-38.0% |
|
ALTR |
12.1% |
|
PMCS |
20.5% |
|
ANAD |
-6.9% |
-22.6% |
|
PMCS |
11.5% |
|
QCOM |
15.6% |
|
BRCM |
3.9% |
10.1% |
|
SMTL |
8.4% |
|
XLNX |
12.6% |
|
CPHD |
-5.5% |
7.5% |
|
EQIX |
8.2% |
|
ALTR |
11.8% |
|
ENER |
-0.3% |
99.2% |
|
FORM |
7.7% |
|
BRCM |
10.1% |
|
EQIX |
8.2% |
-8.4% |
|
NETL |
7.3% |
|
CPHD |
7.5% |
|
EZCH |
5.3% |
-18.1% |
|
FLEX |
6.2% |
|
TSM |
6.8% |
|
FLEX |
6.2% |
-22.1% |
|
SYNA |
5.7% |
|
NETL |
5.7% |
|
FNSR |
4.7% |
-8.3% |
|
PWER |
5.6% |
|
SYNA |
3.5% |
|
FORM |
7.7% |
-39.8% |
|
NSM |
5.5% |
|
SMTL |
-1.6% |
|
GLW |
-0.4% |
-15.4% |
|
EZCH |
5.3% |
|
NSM |
-3.3% |
|
HITT |
2.9% |
-26.8% |
|
TXN |
4.8% |
|
FNSR |
-8.3% |
|
IKAN |
-9.1% |
-46.5% |
|
MU |
4.8% |
|
EQIX |
-8.4% |
|
MU |
4.8% |
-21.4% |
|
FNSR |
4.7% |
|
TXN |
-13.1% |
|
MVIS |
-10.6% |
-37.2% |
|
BRCM |
3.9% |
|
GLW |
-15.4% |
|
NETL |
7.3% |
5.7% |
|
TSM |
3.3% |
|
EZCH |
-18.1% |
|
NSM |
5.5% |
-3.3% |
|
XLNX |
3.3% |
|
MU |
-21.4% |
|
OPXT |
-0.4% |
-44.6% |
|
HITT |
2.9% |
|
FLEX |
-22.1% |
|
PMCS |
11.5% |
20.5% |
|
S |
1.2% |
|
ANAD |
-22.6% |
|
PWER |
5.6% |
-52.6% |
|
SMI |
0.0% |
|
HITT |
-26.8% |
|
QCOM |
-6.5% |
15.6% |
|
ENER |
-0.3% |
|
S |
-35.0% |
|
S |
1.2% |
-35.0% |
|
GLW |
-0.4% |
|
MVIS |
-37.2% |
|
SIGM |
13.2% |
-68.2% |
|
OPXT |
-0.4% |
|
AMD |
-38.0% |
|
SMI |
0.0% |
-48.9% |
|
ZRAN |
-0.5% |
|
FORM |
-39.8% |
|
SMTL |
8.4% |
-1.6% |
|
AMD |
-3.9% |
|
OPXT |
-44.6% |
|
SYNA |
5.7% |
3.5% |
|
CPHD |
-5.5% |
|
IKAN |
-46.5% |
|
TSM |
3.3% |
6.8% |
|
QCOM |
-6.5% |
|
SMI |
-48.9% |
|
TXN |
4.8% |
-13.1% |
|
ANAD |
-6.9% |
|
PWER |
-52.6% |
|
XLNX |
3.3% |
12.6% |
|
IKAN |
-9.1% |
|
ZRAN |
-54.6% |
|
ZRAN |
-0.5% |
-54.6% |
|
MVIS |
-10.6% |
|
SIGM |
-68.2% |
The Watch List:
| |
Week |
YTD |
| CAVM |
-
5.5% |
-
28.1% |
| HLIT |
1.6% |
-
9.0% |
| QUIK |
-
6.3% |
-
55.2% |
| WAVX |
1.3% |
-
46.9% |
Historical Returns:
| Period |
GTI
|
NSD
|
S&P
excl
divds
|
S&P
incl
divds
|
| 1997 |
21.4% |
21.6% |
31.0% |
|
| 1998 |
48.2% |
39.6% |
26.7% |
|
| 1999 |
284.3% |
85.6% |
19.5% |
|
| 2000 |
-
43.9% |
-
39.3% |
-
10.1% |
|
| 2001 |
-
43.3% |
-
21.1% |
-
13.1% |
|
| 2002 |
-
56.4% |
-
31.5% |
-
23.4% |
|
| 2003 |
130.3% |
50.0% |
26.4% |
|
| 2004 |
2.5% |
8.6% |
9.0% |
|
| 2005 |
5.1% |
1.4% |
3.0% |
4.9% |
| 2006 |
15.8% |
9.5% |
13.6% |
15.8% |
| 2007 |
5.8% |
9.8% |
3.5% |
5.5% |
| Year
to date |
-
13.5% |
-
13.9% |
-
14.1% |
-
13.1% |
| Avg
11+ yrs |
8.3% |
5.1% |
4.7% |
|
| Since
3/6/00 |
-
77% |
-
55% |
-
17% |
|
| Since
10/9/02 |
294% |
105% |
62% |
|
Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year |
Do Pay
Dividends |
Do Not Pay
Dividends |
| 2004 |
11.6% |
- 3.3% |
| 2005 |
11.1% |
4.2% |
| 2006 |
-
5.9% |
22.1% |
| 2007 |
-
1.9% |
7.6% |
| Year
to date |
2.0% |
-
18.3% |
| Avg
4+ yrs |
3.5% |
1.7% |
Finally, We Have a Lot
of Room to Grow
Before We Get Back to Our All-Time Highs:
|
GTI
|
NSD |
| Amount
lost |
94% |
78% |
| Recovered
so far |
19% |
30% |
| Needed
from here |
327% |
121% |
Graph
of the GTI's long recovery attempt.
|
Year to Date: GTI,
NASDAQ, S&P
Also Four
Horsemen Mini-GTI
(EZCH,SIGM,NETL,CAVM)
GTI Last 52 Weeks, with Moving Averages
(The GTI started at 10,000 on
January 1, 1999)
From January 1, 1999: GTI, NASDAQ, S&P
Weekly Change in GTI, Last 52 Weeks
Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 2-1/2 Years
(The
Once Upon a Time Sinusoidal Repeating Chart)
Makeup of the GTI:
For the time being, at least, the GTI companies
are the 31 "Telecosm
Technologies" from the
final (June, 2007) Gilder Technology Report.
They are listed here.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
20 up, 10 down, 1 unchanged.
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As
an indication of volatility, this table shows average
weekly change in the GTI each year:
| Year |
Ave
Wkly Change |
| 1999 |
4.2% |
| 2000 |
7.7% |
| 2001 |
8.5% |
| 2002 |
6.8% |
| 2003 |
4.3% |
| 2004 |
3.4% |
| 2005 |
2.1% |
| 2006 |
2.9% |
| 2007 |
2.1% |
| 2008
to date |
3.8% |
As
an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
Year |
Number
of Up Weeks |
As a % |
| 1999 |
39
of 52 |
75% |
| 2000 |
24
of 52 |
46% |
| 2001 |
22
of 52 |
42% |
| 2002 |
19
of 52 |
37% |
| 2003 |
31
of 53 |
58% |
| 2004 |
28
of 52 |
54% |
| 2005 |
26 of 52 |
50% |
| 2007 |
32 of 52 |
62% |
| 2008
to date |
14
of
29 |
48% |
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