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Leaving Lake George
Photo by Szymon
Gilder Technology Index (GTI)
*The* Site for Gilder Results

Dick Sears
Friday, July 18, 2008

Weekly Report: Friday, 4:45 Eastern Time
Daily Updates: Five minutes after market closes

Click here for Daily Updates
 

 

"Broad Band" by Holly Seeger/Today Video. 
See also her "Digital Power" animation (5 sec delay).

Commentary:  Test Results

Some weeks ago, I reported to you something
I had seen on CNBC. (I only saw it, I didn't hear
it. Like children, CNBC should be seen but not
heard.)

Based on a graphic on the TV screen, a talking
head seemed to be predicting that the market
was going to retest its Saint Patrick's Day lows.

At the time, we were sailing along, with the
market at a five-month high. The prediction
gave me an ugly chill, and it turned out to be
uncanny, of course.

This week, after six consecutive bad weeks,
the market did in fact retest its lows, but for
the moment, at least, it seems to have passed
the test.

But was that a final or a midterm? Time will tell.

In any event, despite a soft and googly Friday
(not to mention MVIS's disappointingly-priced
stock offering), we just had our first good week
since May. The GTI was up 2.8%, and the Four
Horsemen, with solid gains from all but CAVM,
gained 5.2%.

Meanwhile, GG continues to cut class. Over
the last five weeks his forum posts (five in total)
have averaged only half a line of print a day.

GG's Forum Posts:

 

# of Posts

This week 3
5-wk avg 1.4

For comparison, before the GTR stopped,
GG averaged 9.1 posts per week.

The Daily Chart:

The Indexes:

  GTI    NSD   S&P   4 HM   
Week 2.6%  2.0%  1.7%  5.1% 
YTD - 13.5%  - 13.9%  - 14.1%  - 28.5% 
52 wks - 22.8%  - 15.1%  - 17.8%  n.a.    

YTD S&P including dividends:  - 13.2%.

The GTI's 31 Component Stocks

In Alphabetic Order

 

In Order By Return

 

Week

YTD

 

 

Week

 

YTD

ALTR

12.1%

11.8%

 

SIGM

13.2%

ENER

99.2%

AMD

-3.9%

-38.0%

 

ALTR

12.1%

PMCS

20.5%

ANAD

-6.9%

-22.6%

 

PMCS

11.5%

QCOM

15.6%

BRCM

3.9%

10.1%

 

SMTL

8.4%

XLNX

12.6%

CPHD

-5.5%

7.5%

 

EQIX

8.2%

ALTR

11.8%

ENER

-0.3%

99.2%

 

FORM

7.7%

BRCM

10.1%

EQIX

8.2%

-8.4%

 

NETL

7.3%

CPHD

7.5%

EZCH

5.3%

-18.1%

 

FLEX

6.2%

TSM

6.8%

FLEX

6.2%

-22.1%

 

SYNA

5.7%

NETL

5.7%

FNSR

4.7%

-8.3%

 

PWER

5.6%

SYNA

3.5%

FORM

7.7%

-39.8%

 

NSM

5.5%

SMTL

-1.6%

GLW

-0.4%

-15.4%

 

EZCH

5.3%

NSM

-3.3%

HITT

2.9%

-26.8%

 

TXN

4.8%

FNSR

-8.3%

IKAN

-9.1%

-46.5%

 

MU

4.8%

EQIX

-8.4%

MU

4.8%

-21.4%

 

FNSR

4.7%

TXN

-13.1%

MVIS

-10.6%

-37.2%

 

BRCM

3.9%

GLW

-15.4%

NETL

7.3%

5.7%

 

TSM

3.3%

EZCH

-18.1%

NSM

5.5%

-3.3%

 

XLNX

3.3%

MU

-21.4%

OPXT

-0.4%

-44.6%

 

HITT

2.9%

FLEX

-22.1%

PMCS

11.5%

20.5%

 

S

1.2%

ANAD

-22.6%

PWER

5.6%

-52.6%

 

SMI

0.0%

HITT

-26.8%

QCOM

-6.5%

15.6%

 

ENER

-0.3%

S

-35.0%

S

1.2%

-35.0%

 

GLW

-0.4%

MVIS

-37.2%

SIGM

13.2%

-68.2%

 

OPXT

-0.4%

AMD

-38.0%

SMI

0.0%

-48.9%

 

ZRAN

-0.5%

FORM

-39.8%

SMTL

8.4%

-1.6%

 

AMD

-3.9%

OPXT

-44.6%

SYNA

5.7%

3.5%

 

CPHD

-5.5%

IKAN

-46.5%

TSM

3.3%

6.8%

 

QCOM

-6.5%

SMI

-48.9%

TXN

4.8%

-13.1%

 

ANAD

-6.9%

PWER

-52.6%

XLNX

3.3%

12.6%

 

IKAN

-9.1%

ZRAN

-54.6%

ZRAN

-0.5%

-54.6%

 

MVIS

-10.6%

SIGM

-68.2%

The Watch List:

  Week   YTD   
CAVM - 5.5%   - 28.1%  
HLIT 1.6%   - 9.0%  
QUIK - 6.3%   - 55.2%  
WAVX 1.3%   - 46.9%  

Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  

S&P
excl
divds

S&P
incl
divds

1997 21.4% 21.6% 31.0%
1998 48.2% 39.6%  26.7%
1999 284.3% 85.6%  19.5%
2000 - 43.9% - 39.3% - 10.1%
2001  - 43.3% - 21.1% - 13.1%
2002 - 56.4% - 31.5% - 23.4%
2003  130.3% 50.0% 26.4%
2004   2.5% 8.6%    9.0%
2005   5.1%  1.4% 3.0% 4.9%
2006 15.8% 9.5% 13.6% 15.8%
2007 5.8% 9.8% 3.5% 5.5%
Year to date - 13.5% - 13.9% - 14.1% - 13.1%
Avg 11+ yrs 8.3%  5.1% 4.7%
Since 3/6/00 - 77% - 55% - 17%
Since 10/9/02 294% 105% 62%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay
Dividends
Do Not Pay
Dividends
2004 11.6%   - 3.3%  
2005 11.1%   4.2%  
2006 - 5.9%   22.1%  
2007 - 1.9%   7.6%  
Year to date 2.0%   - 18.3%  
Avg 4+ yrs 3.5%   1.7%  

Finally, We Have a Lot of Room to Grow
Before We Get Back to Our All-Time Highs:

GTI     NSD   
Amount lost 94%   78%  
Recovered so far 19%   30%  
Needed from here 327%   121%  

Graph of the GTI's long recovery attempt.

Year to Date: GTI, NASDAQ, S&P
Also Four Horsemen Mini-GTI
(EZCH,SIGM,NETL,CAVM)


GTI Last 52 Weeks, with Moving Averages
(The GTI started at 10,000 on January 1, 1999)


From January 1, 1999: GTI, NASDAQ, S&P



Weekly Change in GTI, Last 52 Weeks


Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 2-1/2 Years
(The Once Upon a Time Sinusoidal Repeating Chart)

Makeup of the GTI:

For the time being, at least, the GTI companies
are the 31 "Telecosm Technologies" from the
final (June, 2007) Gilder Technology Report.
They are listed here.


Advances vs. Declines:

Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
20 up, 10 down, 1 unchanged.


Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows a
verage weekly change in the GTI each year:

Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 2.1%
2006 2.9%
2007 2.1%
2008 to date 3.8%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:


Year
Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 26 of 52 50%
2007 32 of 52 62%
2008 to date 14 of 29 48%